[2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. So how do we enforce it? Wagner Group-affiliated media outletRIAFANposted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. Meanwhile, in wars in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian military has preferred to "outsource" to local auxiliaries, mercenaries, and proxies the manning of defensive positions and more casualty-intensive close-quarters combat missions. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. An early example is the re-introduction of outdated T-62 tanks to Russian service. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. pic.twitter.com/ZpJRkRStLw, Vuhledar, and Russians tried it again. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. Do the sources know the information? Given the struggles the Russian military has had conducting precision strikes to force a surrender of Ukrainian military units, Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. [36], Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. None of this should be overstated. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. MARTIN: Who are these people? They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. More recently, after an underwhelming performance in a war with Georgia in 2008, in 2009 Moscow began a new drive to reorganize, professionalize, modernize and selectively recapitalize its military. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US does not assess that Russia will use nuclear weapons during a House Armed Service Committee hearing on American military support for Ukraine on February 28. But one of the lessons thats clearly evident is that the will of the people, the will of the Ukrainian people, and the importance of national leadership and the fighting skills of the Ukrainian army has come through loud and clear.. Ukrainian soldiers explicitly attacked the Russian supply lines, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own, Ukrainian drones have been picking off Russian convoys, The Supreme Courts Conservatives Tried Very Hard Today to Find a Good Reason to Screw Biden, Theres a Clear Answer to the Texas Judge Who Thinks He Can Ban Abortion Pills Nationwide. In one notorious incident early in the war, a 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and towed artillery became stalled 19 miles (30 km) We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. You can follow his articles on Twitter. This is well known. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. In one sense, this was predictable. NOW WATCH: Russia just introduced a new missile nicknamed 'Satan 2' here's a look at their other formidable weapon systems, fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns, doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. They've moved troops around the country in slow, lumbering convoys that have seemed to get stuck at times, and they've had trouble keeping up their supply lines. But even more critical are losses of heavily armed, but lightly armored BMP The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna itself, Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. #Ukraine: A Russian T-72B3 tank and BMP-2 IFV were destroyed by the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade using an AT mine and ATGM respectively in Mykilske near Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. Pretty outdated. President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. It's true a significant chunk of Russia's army is made up of conscripts who are paid a pittance (2,000 rubles, ie. Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. By Dr Igor Sutyagin. [79]Neither Belarusian nor Russian authorities have commented on the reported attack as of this publication. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. most of it. WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So it's really curious. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from The force employment is completely irrational, preparations for a real war near nonexistent and morale incredibly low because troops were clearly not told they would be sent into this fight.. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. And the more Putin resorts to chaotic destructiveness, the more organized the defenses become. Or Russia could try to shut down Ukraines banking system, or parts of the power grid, to increase pressure on the civilian population to capitulate. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update. Last modified on Mon 27 Feb 2023 15.47 EST. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. [7]Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Security Service (FSB) board on February 28 and emphasized the role of the FSB in supporting the war in Ukraine in a law enforcement and counterterrorism capacity. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Over the past decade, the Russian armed forces have greatly improved, especially in the numbers of troops and quality of weapons. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. [11]Peskov added that Ukraine also needs to consider Russias specific goals in the war in Ukraine to reach a negotiated settlement. By Helene Cooper,Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, CONSTANTA, Romania When it comes to war, generals say that mass matters.. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. It isnt a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. In 2022, Moscow allocated $61.7 billion for the military, the fourth biggest military budget in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Ukraines military could pull back from the key eastern stronghold of Bakhmut, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said Wednesday, [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. Russias disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russias military from its Soviet-era peak. Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. It's mistaken to assume perceptions of the Russian and Soviet militaries necessarily remain true today. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a But if our - if these Wagner guys can go up against Delta Force and put up a fight, you know, that tells you what they're capable of. And that is what Russia did in 2014 to sort of take Crimea. Whats their motivation for telling us? Russia's disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russia's military from its Soviet-era peak. She said there should be an investigation. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. You've written extensively about these groups. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? [41], Supporting EffortSouthern Axis(Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes). Meanwhile, it is the Ukrainians who've seen more updated in their defenses, adopting fast-moving guerrilla tactics and using social media to relentlessly put out their message. Moscow's inability to gain and hold significant ground in Ukraine, coupled with the destruction of much of its equipment in battle, has forced it to deploy Soviet-era tanks and weapons systems, according to Western intelligence. He's going back to the 1940s. Apoorva Kaul . A 2020 CSIS article, for example, counts 260,000 conscript soldiers and 410,000 contract soldiers, the latter paid an average of 62,000 rubles per month. ), Damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control plane at the Machulishchi Air Base in Minsk, Belarus, remains unclear as of February 28. It'll be horrific. Want to write for Task & Purpose? Do the sources know the information? ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. The small central European country now hosts thousands of NATO troops while allied aircraft patrol its skies, allowing Bratislava to consider becoming Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons Depends on which standards the word outdated is based. By Hollywood standards, its certainly mostly outdated, there are even personnel wearing 1 It's a rare acknowledgment of the flaws in the Russian military's capabilities revealed by the war. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. They have been updated through the decades. [53]This arrest demonstrates Russian authorities willingness and ability to target Russian citizens abroad in Russia-friendly countries for acts of protest committed previously within Russia. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. A Saint Petersburg local news source reported that a graduate student faces criminal charges for breaking a window at the Vyborg Raion, Saint Petersburg military registration and enlistment office, and painting anti-war slogans in the office on February 26. [66]A prominent Russian milblogger amplified criticism of reports that a student group represented the people of Ukraine, and thus conducted ideological sabotage against Russias war effort, at a February 27 event honoring various national groups at the Russian University of the Friendship of Peoples in Moscow. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. All rights reserved. But one thing stands out to some analysts. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an Now, most of those mercenaries with the Wagner Group, they are ex - we'll say, like, USSR orbit. And so, as the Russian invaders met resistance, they didnt quite know what to do. The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. [36], Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on February 28. It's certainly horrifying. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. On Friday, he told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the military's registration and enlistment offices have to be modernized, noting "certain problems, difficulties" in Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, per Russian news outlet Moscow 24. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 28 that Russian officials are open to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine but that Ukraine and the West must recognize new territorial realities associated with Russias illegal annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. [58]Business InsiderandThe Economistnoted that 18 Russian factories are refurbishing old tanks and that two more repair plants will soon join the efforts. Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance? Nor have the Russians established air superiority, even though their air force far outnumbers Ukraines. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. No tolerance of casualties.". According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. as well as other partner offers and accept our. It's unlikely. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. [76]The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian occupation officials in Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast are forcing students to write letters to Russian military personnel and attend daily hour-long informational sessions that present the Russian framing of the war in Ukraine.[77]. In 2018, about 400 Wagner Group mercenaries went up against some of our best troops - Delta Force, Green Berets, Marines - in eastern Syria. Sean McFate, welcome. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. If you look at whats on the other side, youll see that there isnt really an opponent anymore, he said. Putin lauded the FSB for its direct participation in the war in non-standard field tasks such as protection of the Russian border and cracking down on terrorist activities, organized crime, corruption, and extremism. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. Plagued by poor morale as well as other partner offers and accept our the First pictures of the invaders... 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